Raleigh, NC—A new report from Environment North
Carolina highlights
a paradox in the predicted impacts of global warming: more heavy rains
will be accompanied by more
drought. The study, “When It Rains, It Pours,”
finds that storms with heavy rainfall have increased 16 percent in
North Carolina over the last 60 years, consistent with scientific
forecasts for a warming planet.
“It’s hard to imagine now,”
said Elizabeth Ouzts, State Director of Environment North Carolina, “but if
these trends keep up, what was once the ‘storm of the decade’ will soon seem
like just another downpour.”
As North Carolinians know all too well, the increase in the number of big
downpours does not mean that more water will be available. Scientists expect that extreme downpours will
punctuate longer periods of relative dryness, increasing the risk of
drought. Furthermore, pavement will prevent
rainwater from seeping underground to recharge aquifers, while surface water
evaporation will increase with warmer temperatures—exacerbating dry
conditions. Under one scenario of
intense warming, scientists predict that the percent of land enduring severe
drought globally could rise to 30 percent by the end of the century compared
with 1 percent today.
“Water, water everywhere, but
not a drop to drink,” said Travis Madsen, Policy Analyst with the Frontier
Group and co-author of the report.
“That’s the outlook if these trends continue.”
The new Environment North
Carolina report, When it Rains, It Pours:
Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the
United
States, examines trends in the frequency of large rain and snow events
across the continental United States from 1948 to 2006. Using data
from 3,000 weather stations and a
methodology originally developed by scientists at the National Climatic
Data Center and the Illinois State Water Survey, the report
identifies storms with the greatest 24-hour precipitation totals at
each
weather station, and analyzes when those storms occurred.
Nationally, the report shows that
storms with extreme precipitation have increased in frequency by 24 percent
across the continental United States since 1948. At
the state level, 40 states show a significant trend toward more frequent storms
with extreme precipitation, while only one state (Oregon) shows a significant decline.
Key findings for the region
include:
- Storms with extreme precipitation increased in
frequency by 15 percent from 1948 to 2006 in the South Atlantic states, from Florida to Maryland
- North Carolina experienced a 16 percent increase in extreme
rainstorms during the period studied.
These findings are consistent
with the predicted impacts of global warming.
Scientists expect some parts of the United States to receive more precipitation as a result of global
warming, while other parts receive less.
But regardless of the trend in total precipitation, scientists predict
that the rain and snow that does fall will be more likely to come in big
downpours and heavy snowstorms.
“How serious this problem
gets is largely within our control – but only if our country acts boldly to
reduce the pollution that fuels global warming,” said Ouzts.
According to the most recent
science, the United
States
must reduce its total global warming emissions by at least 15 percent by 2020
and by at least 80 percent by 2050 in order to prevent the worst effects of
global warming.
North
Carolina’s
Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change is currently reviewing some 56
policy recommendations for reducing global warming pollution and mitigating the
impacts of climate change. The
commission’s final recommendations to the North Carolina General Assembly are
due April 15 of this year.
“Steep reductions in global
warming pollution are challenging but achievable,” noted Ouzts. “And we already
have the renewable energy and energy efficiency tools we need to get started.”
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Environment North
Carolina is a statewide, citizen-based
environmental advocacy organization.
Frontier
Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier
and more democratic society.
